This inflation is coming from broken supply, not from too much money. While it lasts, owning the broad market is not the hedge our earlier views assumed.
Grant Bishop · data as of 2026-09-21 · bears on W-1 ·
What would prove us wrong
Core inflation (excluding food and energy) above 3 percent for two quarters after oil falls back below $85 — that would mean the inflation has become demand-driven and the old hedge is back. Or broad-market multiples expanding while oil stays above $100 — the market disagreeing with the 1970s.
Written according to the Grant Bishop standard — machine-researched, machine-checked, human-judged; then read and committed by the publisher. Every number traces to a filing or a dated market record; every claim carries a date and what would prove it wrong.
Core inflation (excluding food and energy) above 3 percent for two quarters after oil falls back below $85 — that would mean the inflation has become demand-driven and the old hedge is back. Or broad-market multiples expanding while oil stays above $100 — the market disagreeing with the 1970s.
Position disclosure
The publisher holds index-level U.S. equity exposure and no direct position in any single name discussed.
Not advice
General commentary for a general audience. Not advice for your situation.
