The Warsh Fed tightens into this inflation rather than looking through it, and the pressure on stock prices from the rising price of money continues at least through year-end.
On 16 September the Fed raised its policy rate — the range it targets for overnight lending between banks — by a quarter point, to 3.75–4 percent, on a unanimous vote 17. The Committee's own projections put that rate at 4.1 percent at the end of this year and still 4.1 percent at the end of next: one more quarter-point from here, then a hold. In June the same projections had said 3.8 and 3.6 18. In August we said we would not carry the reported hawkish turn until it was checked against the Fed's own releases. It has been. A chair installed to bring rates down has begun a hiking cycle into a supply-driven inflation, which is the 1970s pattern, and it is the reason the price of money is rising under every stock — the mechanism behind W-2.
W-2: The summer sell-offs on beat-and-raise reports are the market paying less for earnings, not the businesses failing. They reverse when the price of money stops rising.
No second increase by the 8–9 December meeting, or a cut, while the statement still calls inflation elevated.
FOMC statements of 27–28 October and 8–9 December; the December projections
What is a House View? · 2026-09-01
Record
Written according to the Grant Bishop standard — machine-researched, machine-checked, human-judged; then read and committed by the publisher. Every number traces to a filing or a dated market record; every claim carries a date and what would prove it wrong.
- Drafted by
- Claude Fable 5 under Grant Bishop's methodology
- Verification
- multi-source verified, machine-drafted, human-gated
- As of
- 2026-09-21
- Published
- Aug 31, 2026, 19:15 ET · 2026-08-31 23:15 UTC
- What would change this
- No second increase by the 8–9 December meeting, or a cut, while the statement still calls inflation elevated.
- Position disclosure
- The publisher holds index-level U.S. equity exposure and no direct position in any single name discussed.
- Not advice
- General commentary for a general audience. Not advice for your situation.