The claims board

This inflation is coming from broken supply, not from too much money. While it lasts, owning the broad market is not the hedge our earlier views assumed.

Core inflation (excluding food and energy) above 3 percent for two quarters after oil falls back below $85 — that would mean the inflation has become demand-driven and the old hedge is back. Or broad-market multiples expanding while oil stays above $100 — the market disagreeing with the 1970s.

The summer sell-offs on beat-and-raise reports are the market paying less for earnings, not the businesses failing. They reverse when the price of money stops rising.

At the late-October to mid-November prints, companies that beat and raise keep falling while companies that miss hold. That would say the market is pricing the businesses, not the money.

Spare rented computing capacity moves work around; it does not cancel new power and cooling construction, which follows capital spending, not chip scarcity.

Hyperscaler capital-spending guidance cut at the late-October reports; or a data center of 100 megawatts or more publicly deferred citing surplus; or Vertiv cutting its growth guidance. (Vertiv stopped reporting quarterly orders and backlog in February; we watch deferred revenue and growth guidance instead.)

Candidate claim: windfall oil revenue in the Gulf is flowing into government-backed AI infrastructure, which is why that demand has separated from the rented-compute market.

A Gulf sovereign fund pausing or cutting an AI commitment while oil stays above $90; or those commitments failing to grow over two quarters despite the windfall.

The Warsh Fed tightens into this inflation rather than looking through it, and the pressure on stock prices from the rising price of money continues at least through year-end.

On 16 September the Fed raised its policy rate — the range it targets for overnight lending between banks — by a quarter point, to 3.75–4 percent, on a unanimous vote ¹⁷. The Committee's own projections put that rate at 4.1 percent at the end of this year and still 4.1 percent at the end of next: one more quarter-point from here, then a hold. In June the same projections had said 3.8 and 3.6 ¹⁸. In August we said we would not carry the reported hawkish turn until it was checked against the Fed's own releases. It has been. A chair installed to bring rates down has begun a hiking cycle into a supply-driven inflation, which is the 1970s pattern, and it is the reason the price of money is rising under every stock — the mechanism behind W-2.

No second increase by the 8–9 December meeting, or a cut, while the statement still calls inflation elevated.