← Claims board

The Fed under Warsh keeps raising rates into this inflation

The Warsh Fed tightens into this inflation rather than looking through it, and the pressure on stock prices from the rising price of money continues at least through year-end.

On 16 September the Fed raised its policy rate — the range it targets for overnight lending between banks — by a quarter point, to 3.75–4 percent, on a unanimous vote ²⁵. The Committee's own projections put that rate at 4.1 percent at the end of this year and still 4.1 percent at the end of next: one more quarter-point from here, then a hold. In June the same projections had said 3.8 and 3.6 ²⁶. In August we said we would not carry the reported hawkish turn until it was checked against the Fed's own releases. It has been. A chair installed to bring rates down has begun a hiking cycle into a supply-driven inflation, which is the 1970s pattern, and it is the reason the price of money is rising under every stock — the mechanism behind The market is paying less for earnings, not doubting the businesses.

The summer sell-offs on beat-and-raise reports are the market paying less for earnings, not the businesses failing. They reverse when the price of money stops rising.

Add the review date to a calendar · Every review date, as one calendar

Follow this claim. The weekly piece, and a note when it trips.

EmailSubscribe

Record

Written according to the Grant Bishop standard — machine-researched, machine-checked, human-judged; then read and committed by the publisher. Every number traces to a filing or a dated market record; every claim carries a date and what would prove it wrong.

Drafted by

Claude Opus 5.5 under Grant Bishop's methodology

Verification

multi-source verified, machine-drafted, human-gated

As of

2026-10-13

Published

Aug 31, 2026, 19:15 ET · 2026-08-31 23:15 UTC · changelog

Bears on

The Fed under Warsh keeps raising rates into this inflation, the frame

What would change this

No second increase by the 8–9 December meeting, or a cut, while the statement still calls inflation elevated.

Position disclosure

The publisher holds index-level U.S. equity exposure and no direct position in any single name discussed.

Not advice

General commentary for a general audience. Not advice for your situation.

Sources (2)

25Federal Reserve Board, FOMC statement, 16 September 2026 — https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm

26Federal Reserve Board, Summary of Economic Projections, accessible version, Table 1 and Figure 2, 16 September 2026 — https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260916.htm

Show sourcesHide sources